As the Russia–Ukraine war approaches its fourth year, both countries have suffered enormous military losses. A new study by the Washington-based think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) shows that since the war began in February 2022, the two countries combined have sustained around 1.8 million military casualties.
The figure includes soldiers who have been killed, wounded, or reported missing from both sides. According to CSIS data, Russia alone has suffered approximately 1.2 million military casualties, including deaths, injuries, and missing personnel. Ukraine, meanwhile, has incurred losses estimated at around 600,000 troops.
If the conflict continues at the current pace, CSIS projects that total casualties could reach 2 million by next spring. CSIS estimates that between 275,000 and 325,000 Russian soldiers have been killed so far, while between 100,000 and 140,000 Ukrainian troops are believed to have died.
Various international media outlets have described these losses as the largest military casualties recorded since the Second World War.
Limited Territorial Gains Despite High Losses
Despite the scale of the losses, the report notes that Russia has managed to capture only a limited amount of territory. According to CSIS, since 2022 Russia has expanded its control by just 12 percent of Ukrainian territory. Over the past two years, territorial gains have been less than 1.5 percent, the report says.
The The New York Times reports that in some areas Russian forces have advanced only 50 to 230 feet per day. CSIS compares this pace to historic military campaigns such as the First World War’s Battle of the Somme, noting that the current advance is even slower.
Although Ukraine has largely remained on the defensive, the report says it has successfully halted Russian advances through a “defense-in-depth” strategy. According to CNN, a combination of trenches, tank barriers, landmines, drones, and artillery has been used to block Russian offensives.
The report also states that the casualty ratio favors Ukraine by two to two-and-a-half times, meaning Russian forces have suffered significantly higher losses.
Recruitment Pressure, Economic Impact, and Prospects for Peace
According to ABC News, neither Russia nor Ukraine regularly releases official casualty figures. Russia has so far officially acknowledged the deaths of around 6,000 soldiers, a number that independent analysts have described as unreliable.
CSIS says Russia has launched its largest recruitment drive since the Second World War to compensate for heavy battlefield losses. The report notes that prisoners and debt-ridden individuals have been recruited into the military and offered substantial financial incentives.
In addition, around 15,000 North Korean soldiers have fought on Russia’s side, with South Korean intelligence sources estimating that hundreds of them have been killed. The war has also had a severe impact on the Russian economy, according to the report.
CNN reports that Russia’s economic growth rate in 2025 has been limited to 0.6 percent. Manufacturing is declining, labor shortages are worsening, and no Russian company ranks among the world’s top 100 technology firms.
CSIS author Seth G. Jones told The New York Times that Russia’s weak military performance in Ukraine and declining economic output show that the country’s status as a major power has been seriously weakened.
Despite the apparent decline in Russia’s standing, CSIS concludes that President Vladimir Putin is unlikely to agree to a peace settlement unless Western countries increase pressure. “Unless additional pressure is applied, Putin is likely to prolong negotiations and continue the war—even if the cost is millions of human lives,” the report says.
